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Hellcat VONs, VINs & Delivery Dates | Statistical Breakdown

12K views 54 replies 21 participants last post by  Snappycat  
#1 ·
Hey everyone -

Finally picked up a VIN after 177 days sitting in VON purgatory. That led me to look into how long it was going to take delivery, how much longer had I waited compared to others and a bunch of other stat-nerd things. I used the information compiled by user rayzazoo in the Hellcat VONs - Customer Sold Order List thread and did a quick breakdown of the raw data. Thanks rayzazoo!

First, I looked at the average period of time between the three major milestones - VON, VIN and Projected Delivery.

Image


Having been a 9/9/14 order, I found it to be a little weird that my experience going from VON to VIN was more than 100% worse than the median value for that timespan (although I did place my order at a small dealer in Massachusetts). The difference between the minimum and maximum times to get a VIN were also pretty surprising. One person waited over seven months for a VIN, while another received it on the very same day that their VON went through.

This led me to try and find some sort of trend that could account for varied results (knowing that the FCA Allotment process is a serious wildcard in the data). I found a natural break in the data when you compare the groups of people who received their VONs before and after 11/1/14.

This break was also favorable because it was close to an even split in data points - 33 VONs received before 11/1 and 36 VONs received after 11/1.

The below tables compare the time between milestones for those who received their VON between 7/23 and 10/31 with those who received their VON between 11/1 and 1/26:

Image


Category Definition:
Range - The difference in time between the person who waited the least and the person who waited the longest.

From the data it is interesting to see how much faster VONs created after 11/1 are moving through the process:
  • The average person who received a VON after 11/1 has been assigned a VIN almost 70% faster than those who received a VON prior to 11/1
  • The average person who received a VON after 11/1 moved from VIN to Projected Delivery just over 11% faster than those who received a VON before 11/1 - this is a bit fuzzy, however, since it is only a projected date
  • Overall, those who received a VON after 11/1 have gone from VON all the way to Projected Delivery in less than half the time than those who received a VON prior to 11/1
There is also another interesting month to month trend even within the November - January period (graphically represented below over the full data set) in the time it takes to go from VON to VIN:

Image

The median time for a July VON to move to VIN was 186 days, while it is only 14 days for those with January VONs.

TL:DR - Those who received VONs after 11/1 are moving through the process of at ludicrous speed compared to those who received their VONs before 11/1.

Oh, what an interesting process we have all become a part of.

- BostonSublime
 
#2 ·
I was #1 at my Dodge dealership for the Hellcat. Since then I have been passed over not once but twice! I just got off the phone with my sales rep at my Dodge dealership and I asked him for an update. He said that they got an allocation last month but it went to the guy behind me. What??? I have now been passed over not once, not twice but THREE TIMES! My rep said he asked his Dodge rep and said that no one knows how Dodge determines what Hellcat is next in line to build at each dealership. Something is not right. I have a feeling that the build orders in front of me paid over MSRP. Please, someone shed some light on this subject. Three friggin times I have been passed over for no reason at all. At first I was excited knowing I was number one in line and thought I would be the lucky guy to own the first hellcat in my area. Now, I may be #4 or #5 or maybe even #6. The entire process doesn't make sense! PS. I ordered Phantom Black with auto! Maybe Dodge couldn't find any paint? Someone from dodge needs to reach out to me or my dealership and explain how this could happen. Thanks for listening everyone!
 
#10 ·
When the dealer has a bunch of the same models order, and they are the same status (in this case sold orders), they then set the priority number (it's on your POC). Like said, most are keeping priority in the sequence the order came in. Yours didn't. The only way you would get passed over is if you had an option that was restricted.
 
#6 ·
Yeah, That's what I think they are doing too. I called them on the BS one day and the sales manger got pissed off at me and said that they have no control over what order is picked up in the system. He was adamant and insulted to say the least. I didn't believe him then and I don't believe him now. I wish there was something that I could do about it but Dodge doesn't seem to care either. The entire ordering process that been crappy at best. Older orders are not getting built while new orders mysteriously get pushed to the front of the line. This only happens when there are greedy dealers who don't care about the customer only their $$$.
 
#7 ·
Call it coincidence if you want, but I'm positive it isn't.. for our Challenger and Charger we had the luck to have #1 spot for each at two different dealers. For both, ours were put into the system before any other orders. For the Challenger, they only had 1 initial allocation (this was in September) and mine (out of 4-5 initially entered) was the only one to get a VIN / D status, as it should be. For the Charger they had 2 initial allocations (January) and our order was put in first. Ours got a VIN and D status first (second in line got their VIN after us and their VIN was sequentially higher).

Your dealer is blowing smoke up your ass. :( I'd normally say find a different dealer but this isn't really an option, obviously. Ask to speak to the GM and demand to know what is going on and why they are assigning allocations to other cars.
 
#8 ·
No mystery. You called him out and he got pissed. Guilty.

Tell him to order your car and stop screwing you around. That you will be writing a letter to FCA documenting their behavior and it will be a report from an unsatisfied customer and it will be noted it was on a allocated car that you put a deposit on ( showing proof of date ) and you'll request FCA ask for proof of the other deposits to see who was actually "in line" first.

Dodge can't tell them how much to sell for, but they'll be interested in hearing feedback from a potential customer and their experience with the dealer. I'd send that one to Tim K.
 
#16 ·
Even immediately after it was ordered it would say 1-Sold Order. You need to get a current POC, don't tip them off when you ask that your checking these things, just request an updated one.
 
#30 ·
Boy, do I wish I had found this forum when we were first dipping our toes into the hellcat territory. So much we didn't know, that had we known, so much would have made more sense when talking with the sales guy at Grapevine DCJ. If I had known as much, I could recall better what all he said and what it meant. Our first excursion into a dealership to look at one that was listed on dodge.com and their website is when learned of the ADM. The car we went to look at was a sold order, come to find out. Salesman says he has opening to order (he actually said allocation but I didn't understand the lingo at that time). He sat with us at his little table and said, I don't want to waste your time or mine, and to get this car, there is a 15K market adjustment over MSRP. He also told us that it could be 6-8 months to actually deliver. The crucial part, I recall, because it made me feel like it was sleezy and wrong, was that he said along the lines of, the more you pay (meaning ADM not deposit), the faster you will get your car. Looking back, I wonder if I paid only 10K over, would I still be in VON hell and if I paid 20K over, would they have gotten me a car?
Now, hearing about people being passed over makes me wonder if that is what is happening. I don't mean to rain on your parade or intend to cause angst, I just wanted to relay our experience. Since we brought in the title to our 2013 SRT8 to trade in case we made a deal and he knew we were a serious cash buyer and maybe that is why he disclosed so much. We ended up not ordering that day, because they wanted 15K over msrp to order and that was something we were not going to do.
 
#32 ·
When did you order it?
 
#34 ·
me too so why mine is so far from yours makes me think they didn't order it until a lot later
 
#35 ·
It was the first day for chargers so keep in mind, I'm sure almost every dealer was placing orders as fast as they could.
 
#36 ·
But 33100000 minus 3300000=100,000. I know theses are for all cars but one hundred thousand? In one day? FCA would be #1 in the world for sales
 
#37 ·
Challenger and Chargers are sharing the same VON sequence to, remember that ;) Could have been a lot of Challengers ordered throughout the country between them.

Study the VON list order thread here and you'll begin to get a feel of where the month and dates fall.
 
#39 ·
Bot one hundred thousand in one day? no way something fishy with my order
 
#38 ·
My VON is 33094853, so 33100000-33094853= 5147. There are approximately 2300 dealerships, I know my dealer had POC's and VONs on 4 of them from the same day. So say every dealer ordered 2 or 3, that's 4600 or 6900 orders placed that day.
 
#42 ·
Mines 33128993 so that's 34140 from yours
 
#43 ·
How relevant this is I'm not sure, BUT my father ordered his hellcat from the local dealer. He was the 2nd person to order one, but the first manual. Eventually they had 3 orders, again, his was the only manual. His arrived last week, and was the first of the 3 to show up. According to the dealership, they were 'building manuals right now' or something to that effect. His and the first guys have been on order almost from the beginning. My dad's has been waiting because of the black hood issue, and finally showed up soon after they cancelled the hood, or so we were told. All cars were ordered at window sticker as well.
 
#44 ·
Hey everyone -

Finally picked up a VIN after 177 days sitting in VON purgatory. That led me to look into how long it was going to take delivery, how much longer had I waited compared to others and a bunch of other stat-nerd things. I used the information compiled by user rayzazoo in the Hellcat VONs - Customer Sold Order List thread and did a quick breakdown of the raw data. Thanks rayzazoo!

First, I looked at the average period of time between the three major milestones - VON, VIN and Projected Delivery.

Image


Having been a 9/9/14 order, I found it to be a little weird that my experience going from VON to VIN was more than 100% worse than the median value for that timespan (although I did place my order at a small dealer in Massachusetts). The difference between the minimum and maximum times to get a VIN were also pretty surprising. One person waited over seven months for a VIN, while another received it on the very same day that their VON went through.

This led me to try and find some sort of trend that could account for varied results (knowing that the FCA Allotment process is a serious wildcard in the data). I found a natural break in the data when you compare the groups of people who received their VONs before and after 11/1/14.

This break was also favorable because it was close to an even split in data points - 33 VONs received before 11/1 and 36 VONs received after 11/1.

The below tables compare the time between milestones for those who received their VON between 7/23 and 10/31 with those who received their VON between 11/1 and 1/26:

Image


Category Definition:
Range - The difference in time between the person who waited the least and the person who waited the longest.

From the data it is interesting to see how much faster VONs created after 11/1 are moving through the process:
  • The average person who received a VON after 11/1 has been assigned a VIN almost 70% faster than those who received a VON prior to 11/1
  • The average person who received a VON after 11/1 moved from VIN to Projected Delivery just over 11% faster than those who received a VON before 11/1 - this is a bit fuzzy, however, since it is only a projected date
  • Overall, those who received a VON after 11/1 have gone from VON all the way to Projected Delivery in less than half the time than those who received a VON prior to 11/1
There is also another interesting month to month trend even within the November - January period (graphically represented below over the full data set) in the time it takes to go from VON to VIN:

Image

The median time for a July VON to move to VIN was 186 days, while it is only 14 days for those with January VONs.

TL:DR - Those who received VONs after 11/1 are moving through the process of at ludicrous speed compared to those who received their VONs before 11/1.

Oh, what an interesting process we have all become a part of.

- BostonSublime
Incredibly, no one commented on the work you did here. It's actually fascinating that FCA showed no allegiance to the people who have been following this car for years and got in to the dealership right away to get one.

I emailed TK early Monday morning hoping he'd see my email before beginning his day. I didn't have these stats but essentially said the same thing. He should consider looking at the VON list and focusing on the brand's biggest fans.

I'm still in VON hell, since 9/20, 3rd at the dealer and currently first in line. Dealer has had 2 allocations when some have had a dozen or more.

Thanks for the info.
 
#45 ·
Incredibly, no one commented on the work you did here. It's actually fascinating that FCA showed no allegiance to the people who have been following this car for years and got in to the dealership right away to get one.

I emailed TK early Monday morning hoping he'd see my email before beginning his day. I didn't have these stats but essentially said the same thing. He should consider looking at the VON list and focusing on the brand's biggest fans.

I'm still in VON hell, since 9/20, 3rd at the dealer and currently first in line. Dealer has had 2 allocations when some have had a dozen or more.

Thanks for the info.
Indeed, it would be nice to see some a little love from FCA to the enthusiasts.

Nerve wrecking is knowing about the engine in 2012,
to getting told at SpringFest 2013 to "stay tuned to next SpringFest 2014",
to see a t-shirt revealed at SpringFest 2014,
to finally see something July 2014...
to hopefully get one by July 2015....

To add to the nerves, I constantly get asked when it's going to be built by multiple people including my kiddo.
 
#48 ·
Ask for a copy of the POC for your VON. There will be a status code on it. You can look up what it means here in the fourm.
 
#51 ·
Hey everyone -

Finally picked up a VIN after 177 days sitting in VON purgatory. That led me to look into how long it was going to take delivery, how much longer had I waited compared to others and a bunch of other stat-nerd things. I used the information compiled by user rayzazoo in the Hellcat VONs - Customer Sold Order List thread and did a quick breakdown of the raw data. Thanks rayzazoo!

First, I looked at the average period of time between the three major milestones - VON, VIN and Projected Delivery.

Image


Having been a 9/9/14 order, I found it to be a little weird that my experience going from VON to VIN was more than 100% worse than the median value for that timespan (although I did place my order at a small dealer in Massachusetts). The difference between the minimum and maximum times to get a VIN were also pretty surprising. One person waited over seven months for a VIN, while another received it on the very same day that their VON went through.

This led me to try and find some sort of trend that could account for varied results (knowing that the FCA Allotment process is a serious wildcard in the data). I found a natural break in the data when you compare the groups of people who received their VONs before and after 11/1/14.

This break was also favorable because it was close to an even split in data points - 33 VONs received before 11/1 and 36 VONs received after 11/1.

The below tables compare the time between milestones for those who received their VON between 7/23 and 10/31 with those who received their VON between 11/1 and 1/26:

Image


Category Definition:
Range - The difference in time between the person who waited the least and the person who waited the longest.

From the data it is interesting to see how much faster VONs created after 11/1 are moving through the process:
  • The average person who received a VON after 11/1 has been assigned a VIN almost 70% faster than those who received a VON prior to 11/1
  • The average person who received a VON after 11/1 moved from VIN to Projected Delivery just over 11% faster than those who received a VON before 11/1 - this is a bit fuzzy, however, since it is only a projected date
  • Overall, those who received a VON after 11/1 have gone from VON all the way to Projected Delivery in less than half the time than those who received a VON prior to 11/1
There is also another interesting month to month trend even within the November - January period (graphically represented below over the full data set) in the time it takes to go from VON to VIN:

Image

The median time for a July VON to move to VIN was 186 days, while it is only 14 days for those with January VONs.

TL:DR - Those who received VONs after 11/1 are moving through the process of at ludicrous speed compared to those who received their VONs before 11/1.

Oh, what an interesting process we have all become a part of.

- BostonSublime
Hey Boston,

Your analytics are sweet. As an analyst, I appreciate your effort.

Cheers,
 
#52 ·
Hey everyone -

Finally picked up a VIN after 177 days sitting in VON purgatory. That led me to look into how long it was going to take delivery, how much longer had I waited compared to others and a bunch of other stat-nerd things. I used the information compiled by user rayzazoo in the Hellcat VONs - Customer Sold Order List thread and did a quick breakdown of the raw data. Thanks rayzazoo!

First, I looked at the average period of time between the three major milestones - VON, VIN and Projected Delivery.

Image


Having been a 9/9/14 order, I found it to be a little weird that my experience going from VON to VIN was more than 100% worse than the median value for that timespan (although I did place my order at a small dealer in Massachusetts). The difference between the minimum and maximum times to get a VIN were also pretty surprising. One person waited over seven months for a VIN, while another received it on the very same day that their VON went through.

This led me to try and find some sort of trend that could account for varied results (knowing that the FCA Allotment process is a serious wildcard in the data). I found a natural break in the data when you compare the groups of people who received their VONs before and after 11/1/14.

This break was also favorable because it was close to an even split in data points - 33 VONs received before 11/1 and 36 VONs received after 11/1.

The below tables compare the time between milestones for those who received their VON between 7/23 and 10/31 with those who received their VON between 11/1 and 1/26:

Image


Category Definition:
Range - The difference in time between the person who waited the least and the person who waited the longest.

From the data it is interesting to see how much faster VONs created after 11/1 are moving through the process:
  • The average person who received a VON after 11/1 has been assigned a VIN almost 70% faster than those who received a VON prior to 11/1
  • The average person who received a VON after 11/1 moved from VIN to Projected Delivery just over 11% faster than those who received a VON before 11/1 - this is a bit fuzzy, however, since it is only a projected date
  • Overall, those who received a VON after 11/1 have gone from VON all the way to Projected Delivery in less than half the time than those who received a VON prior to 11/1
There is also another interesting month to month trend even within the November - January period (graphically represented below over the full data set) in the time it takes to go from VON to VIN:

Image

The median time for a July VON to move to VIN was 186 days, while it is only 14 days for those with January VONs.

TL:DR - Those who received VONs after 11/1 are moving through the process of at ludicrous speed compared to those who received their VONs before 11/1.

Oh, what an interesting process we have all become a part of.

- BostonSublime
Have these been updated lately?
 
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#53 ·
Does anyone have any info on what is happening with the A8 situation? I am still waiting for my car, no word from dealer after I turned down the Manuel 6 offer. I was hoping they would get there act together and start make some A8's soon.