[HP_Addict19]

I don’t know what industries you guys work in, but all 3 of the businesses our family is in have giant backorder lists, supply prices have gone off the charts, (some have come back down to earth but it takes weeks and months instead of days to get said materials) and labor prices have gone up. I don’t think there is a much greed going on at this point. Everyone is trying to find a way to push thru, and that comes with passing costs along down the line

I have several buddies that work at US Steel. And they’re very busy. They work a lot of OT too. They easily make 150k or more a year. Their pension and health insurance is awesome too. Our steel is in high demand right now.

 

[NeverEnough]

Not a financial expert yet I would expect off-the-lot depreciation (9-11% MSRP) will kill any short term profit and the lease amount is likely double what you are paying the uber guy unless you are putting down a hefty down payment (equivalent to one year depreciation). Did a quick check for a $70K car with $6K down is over $800/mo over a four year lease. Probably higher if it is a one year lease. I would stick with uber if it is only for a couple of months. Leases are also limited on how much over MSRP they will finance so any ADM you would end up eating as well.

Never put money down on a lease

 

[JMAbacus]

What's your idea of "giving away" on that Challenger?

https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/new/searchresults.action?entitySelectingHelper.selectedEntity=d733&zip=29621#listing=340874458/NONE

How about $11,775 below MSRP on the attached base model car. Shake a tree and they fall out at 10K below. Your down below Honda Civic territory.

 

[JMAbacus]

id buy a civic beater for $2000. Then you can sell that in a few months if you want for almost the same price.

worse case you sell for $1800 and it cost you $200 for a few months.

You'll have to send me the link on that one Reaper. I just went through that exercise about 6 months ago for my daughter. Ended up with a 2011 Corolla with with 59K for 11.5 K. Cosmetically it was about a 7 but mechanically a 10. I don't think I saw a single Civic that ran for 2K. Only thing that cheap are very old domestic cars with lots of issues and miles. For a Civic you are looking at 3-4K for something with over 200K miles and in really rough shape - I mean a dog. Corollas and Civics are Hella expensive. You can get that Korean beater for $500 less but you might need the motor replaced at any moment depending on the model.

 

[Reaperhwk]

You'll have to send me the link on that one Reaper. I just went through that exercise about 6 months ago for my daughter. Ended up with a 2011 Corolla with with 59K for 11.5 K. Cosmetically it was about a 7 but mechanically a 10. I don't think I saw a single Civic that ran for 2K. Only thing that cheap are very old domestic cars with lots of issues and miles. For a Civic you are looking at 3-4K for something with over 200K miles and in really rough shape - I mean a dog. Corollas and Civics are Hella expensive. You can get that Korean beater for $500 less but you might need the motor replaced at any moment depending on the model.

I haven’t looked recently but I guess before the COVID crap I did see cars for $1500. Craigslist beaters. 180k mile + cars.

 

[bobn]

I don't want to take any loss on it, would rather just uber for 400$ a month.
I see SO many 2022 for sale still and I see more vehicles left to order in the horsepower locator
That has me thinking that even new 2023 are going to be selling for UNDER msrp. I think the first few months got everyone worried / FOMO. With the horsepower locator launch and the market was still barly hot, made everyone think they would go for over msrp. but now the market is quickly moving to before covid levels.

Makes me worried that if I buy or lease this Challenger, I am going to be very upside-down from the beginning and will screw myself when my charger comes in.

I’ve been looking at the hp locator for a few months, doesn’t seem like allocations are moving very fast. And I’ve seen a few dealers advertising a JB that hit the lot being available, due to buyer backing out.

Where in MT do you live? I’m in Belgrade.

 

[NeverEnough]

https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/new/searchresults.action?entitySelectingHelper.selectedEntity=d733&zip=29621#listing=340874458/NONE

How about $11,775 below MSRP on the attached base model car. Shake a tree and they fall out at 10K below. Your down below Honda Civic territory.

Never put money down on a lease

 

[NeverEnough]

I haven’t looked recently but I guess before the COVID crap I did see cars for $1500. Craigslist beaters. 180k mile + cars.

We're going to have to wait A little bit longer for these beater cars to settle back down into their correct pricing bracket. We are seeing progress, but not enough yet across the board especially for these garbage cars. I'm still seeing beater cars that should be $1,000 advertised at 4 or 5,000 🤣

 

[NeverEnough]

https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/new/searchresults.action?entitySelectingHelper.selectedEntity=d733&zip=29621#listing=340874458/NONE

How about $11,775 below MSRP on the attached base model car. Shake a tree and they fall out at 10K below. Your down below Honda Civic territory.

26,000 for that? No thank you

 

[ChargerChallenger]

The car market has been strong now going on 2 plus years. But the change of times seems to be upon us with new data showing car payment delinquency. The data is saying 2008-2009 similarities and sub prime loans even worst. People also have purchased cars with ADM the last few years as well and are now finding out the reality they are way upside down do to the used car values plummeting. The day of reckoning for the auto industry is here being higher interest rates has taking many out of the new car car sales. And the trade in values have created a huge challenge for an individual to sell there vehicle on their own or bury a ton of negative equity into a new car. The banks have clamped down on the LTV Loan To Value requiring people to buy out their negative equity or not qualify to buy the car. The manufacturers are starting to catch up with production again slowly though and I think intentionally so they don’t go back to the old days of too much inventory on dealers lots. Interesting times ahead for sure this year but can’t see the Hellcats being giving away per se and feel they will on the used side hold their values as well.

 

[Slowpoke387]

You'll have to send me the link on that one Reaper. I just went through that exercise about 6 months ago for my daughter. Ended up with a 2011 Corolla with with 59K for 11.5 K. Cosmetically it was about a 7 but mechanically a 10. I don't think I saw a single Civic that ran for 2K. Only thing that cheap are very old domestic cars with lots of issues and miles. For a Civic you are looking at 3-4K for something with over 200K miles and in really rough shape - I mean a dog. Corollas and Civics are Hella expensive. You can get that Korean beater for $500 less but you might need the motor replaced at any moment depending on the model.

Here’s a little tidbit for ya. 10 days ago at the dealer only wholesale auction that we attend every week there was a 2011 Corolla. 126k, very average car. Bidding finally ended at $10,700 plus auction fees. Over 11k. I was stunned. There is no money left in small imports right now. We dont bother buying them. we would go out of business selling those even if they’re in such high demand.
I laugh every time I hear people say the market is crashing. Go get yourself a used car business and tell me that.

 

[mcjax0n]

Here’s a little tidbit for ya. 10 days ago at the dealer only wholesale auction that we attend every week there was a 2011 Corolla. 126k, very average car. Bidding finally ended at $10,700 plus auction fees. Over 11k. I was stunned. There is no money left in small imports right now. We dont bother buying them. we would go out of business selling those even if they’re in such high demand.
I laugh every time I hear people say the market is crashing. Go get yourself a used car business and tell me that.

I’d love to get your real world insights. What’s the market doing right now, what’s hot, what’s not and most importantly, where are things trending over the next 6 months, year? Both for used cars and if you had to guess new car prices as well.

 

[JMAbacus]

Here’s a little tidbit for ya. 10 days ago at the dealer only wholesale auction that we attend every week there was a 2011 Corolla. 126k, very average car. Bidding finally ended at $10,700 plus auction fees. Over 11k. I was stunned. There is no money left in small imports right now. We dont bother buying them. we would go out of business selling those even if they’re in such high demand.
I laugh every time I hear people say the market is crashing. Go get yourself a used car business and tell me that.

Right. I paid 11,500 for my 59K Puff from a wholesale/small retail guy after searching for about 3 months. He only sells Honda's, Toyotas, or Lexus. He keeps about 30-35 cars sitting at a strip mall (with cameras inside every car). They move fast. There were 10 other wholesalers in the same strip mall with various offerings and another 50 dealers within spitting distance (outskirts of Atlanta). Spent several hours with him (one man operation) and had dinner and he told me about his business model. In a nutshell he only sells these brands because they have the least number of issues and if he buys one with an issue he either repairs it or sends it right back to auction and can take a loss in either case. The Civic or Corolla can go up to 300-500K mostly trouble free miles depending on the year so I guess that's what drives the demand through the roof. He's far from getting rich in this endeavor - I would last about a month before bankrupting things with a couple bad purchases at auction.

 

[JMAbacus]

The car market has been strong now going on 2 plus years. But the change of times seems to be upon us with new data showing car payment delinquency. The data is saying 2008-2009 similarities and sub prime loans even worst. People also have purchased cars with ADM the last few years as well and are now finding out the reality they are way upside down do to the used car values plummeting. The day of reckoning for the auto industry is here being higher interest rates has taking many out of the new car car sales. And the trade in values have created a huge challenge for an individual to sell there vehicle on their own or bury a ton of negative equity into a new car. The banks have clamped down on the LTV Loan To Value requiring people to buy out their negative equity or not qualify to buy the car. The manufacturers are starting to catch up with production again slowly though and I think intentionally so they don’t go back to the old days of too much inventory on dealers lots. Interesting times ahead for sure this year but can’t see the Hellcats being giving away per se and feel they will on the used side hold their values as well.

I hear you on the delinquency - I am aware of the numbers. And you said it right, they are 1-3 months behind. I am aware of a couple folks in this situation. They contacted the lender and said that they were going to be late on the payment and could not make one for a couple months. They are employed. They couldn't even get the words out of their mouth before the bank said no problem, they would make note and push the due date out. The banks don't want the car so we are in the early innings of this - they are not repossessing anything yet. Any loss of job or shallow recession and the cars are going on the rollback.

 

[frictioncircle]

indeed there are 100's thousands of newly minted unemployed at big and little tech firms all over the country. some won't find equal pay after severance runs out

 

[NeverEnough]

I’d love to get your real world insights. What’s the market doing right now, what’s hot, what’s not and most importantly, where are things trending over the next 6 months, year? Both for used cars and if you had to guess new car prices as well.

Google broken? On the decline...

 

[NeverEnough]

I hear you on the delinquency - I am aware of the numbers. And you said it right, they are 1-3 months behind. I am aware of a couple folks in this situation. They contacted the lender and said that they were going to be late on the payment and could not make one for a couple months. They are employed. They couldn't even get the words out of their mouth before the bank said no problem, they would make note and push the due date out. The banks don't want the car so we are in the early innings of this - they are not repossessing anything yet. Any loss of job or shallow recession and the cars are going on the rollback.

Big companies have already started layoffs and cut backs. The near future will not be good

 

[mcjax0n]

Google broken? On the decline...

I'd like to get his real-world thoughts...assuming, of course, that's ok with you?

 

[Cerino2000]

I was going to say the markets crashing in everyone’s view but the dealers, I’m not really seeing prices affected there just yet. Some of the wholesale is dropping though in certain areas. I absolutely believe a reckoning is coming and as far as I am concerned it’s about fkn time. The dealers have been swimming in cash the last few years so they can keep their tears when the bottom falls out. Big reckoning coming for all the people that recklessly fed the frenzy overpaying for cars they just had to have in the last two years and now they are VERY upside down on (Hello Millennials…time for a good lesson!) This is just the start. Once the dealers finally concede that the market is tanking they won’t want to give shit for a trade in and then the snowball REALLY starts growing. Time to get out the popcorn!

Here’s a little tidbit for ya. 10 days ago at the dealer only wholesale auction that we attend every week there was a 2011 Corolla. 126k, very average car. Bidding finally ended at $10,700 plus auction fees. Over 11k. I was stunned. There is no money left in small imports right now. We dont bother buying them. we would go out of business selling those even if they’re in such high demand.
I laugh every time I hear people say the market is crashing. Go get yourself a used car business and tell me that.

 

[Cerino2000]

I’d love to get your real world insights. What’s the market doing right now, what’s hot, what’s not and most importantly, where are things trending over the next 6 months, year? Both for used cars and if you had to guess new car prices as well.

I think this market is in the biggest state of uncertainty as there ever was. The dealerships will hold out as long as they can though before they concede that they HAVE to lower the price to get things moved. Challengers/Chargers are still holding strong by my view. Only very slowly dropping and still going up and down where others are doing nothing but going down. Truck market is back to normal. My 2019 RAM I could have pulled $40k on a year ago. Now in the upper $20’s. Lots of changes for sure and only gonna change more.